Why Is My State's Crime Rate an Estimate?

The short answer

Police agencies report to the FBI voluntarily, and in any year some report only part of the year and some report nothing. A state's crime rate adds up every agency in the state, so the FBI has to put something in those gaps. It does, by a method it publishes, and it calls the result an estimate. A state crime rate is therefore the FBI's estimate of all reported crime in the state, not a count of what was reported.

How much of a state figure is estimated

That depends on how many of the state's agencies reported. The FBI publishes the count each year, and the share tells you how much of a figure rests on reports.

Vermont's 2025 figure rests mostly on reports. Florida's 2025 figure rests on reports from about half of its agencies, and its 2021 figure on very few, because that was the year the FBI accepted reports only through its newer system, NIBRS, and most Florida agencies had not switched. The FBI publishes a note where it had limited data for a state; for Florida in 2025 it reads: “Limited data for 2025 were available for Florida and North Dakota.”

A worked example

The FBI's estimate for Vermont in 2025 is 1,382 violent crimes for a population of 644,663.

1,382 ÷ 644,663 × 100,000 = 214.4

That is 214.4 estimated violent crimes per 100,000 people. The arithmetic is the same as for a single police agency. The difference is in the first number: for an agency it is what that agency reported, and for a state it is the FBI's estimate of what every agency would have reported had they all reported in full.

How the FBI fills a gap

The FBI describes its method in the methodology published with each annual release. For an agency that supplied 3 to 11 months of data, it estimates the missing months from the data that agency provided. For an agency that supplied fewer than 3 months, it uses “the known crime figures of similar areas within a state,” taking into account the population the agency covers, the type of agency and where it is. The state total is the sum. The method is the FBI's, not CrimeTally's, and CrimeTally does not adjust the result.

How to read a state figure with care

• Look at the share of agencies reporting first. A year under half is mostly the FBI's method. A year above ninety percent is mostly reports.
• Read the FBI's notes. Where it had limited data, it says so, and CrimeTally shows the note on the state's page.
• Mind 2013. The FBI widened its definition of rape that year, which raised violent crime totals from then on.
• Don't rank states by it. The FBI's own guidance lists more than a dozen things, from population density to how readily people report crimes, that shape these figures and that no rate contains, and it discourages ranking places with them.
• Nothing below the state. A state figure cannot be split back into cities or counties. For a city, use the agency's own reported figures, which have no estimates in them.

What this guide does not cover

It does not reproduce the FBI's estimation formulas, which it publishes in the methodology with each annual release, and it does not cover the national estimate, which is built the same way across all states. It cannot say whether any state's rate is high or low.

See your state

State Crime Rates shows the FBI's estimate for every state and every year since 1979, with the share of agencies reporting beside each year and the FBI's notes where it had limited data.

This guide is for informational purposes only and is not professional advice. A reported crime rate describes what one police agency reported to the FBI. It says nothing certain about any one home, street or school.

Last reviewed: September 2026 · Against the FBI's estimated crimes and participation files, Crime Data Explorer, September 2026.